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On October 10, 2003, in Vancouver, B.C. and Washington D.C., Starbucks introduced us to its first Pumpkin Spice Latte.
The concept was a gamble. In consumer surveys, chocolate and caramel drinks got the highest ratings. But, because pumpkin was called the most unique, Starbucks proceeded. To calculate the optimal cinnamon, milk, coffee, and nutmeg ratio, for months (reputedly) they poured espresso over pumpkin pies. Then, satisfied, they named the new drink the “Fall Harvest Latte.” However, some smart person decided instead to call it a Pumpkin Spice Latte, and the rest is history.
Until now.
Pumpkin Spice Latte Popularity
This year, fewer people have been eagerly awaiting the return of the Pumpkin Spice Latte.
According to Google Trends, during 2024, PSL topped search lists in 48 states, and for 2025, it was #1 in 32. This year we are down to three states with matcha and chai the search leaders. Correspondingly, Search reports more interest in banana coffee syrup than pumpkin spice coffee syrup. And confirming the PSL slide, on menus, matcha drinks are up 6.5 percent from last year while pumpkin drinks dropped by 6.9 percent.
As economists, we can say it all relates to our demand determinants.
Our Bottom Line: Demand Determinants
Sinking PSL popularity creates an economic idea bonanza. When a drink becomes less popular, its utility and the number of buyers all change because the demand for a substitute increases. With the PSL, the substitutes include the refreshers that, as we noted at econlife, have become especially appealing to buyers. Although a basic refresher could cost less than a Pumpkin Spice Latte, add-ons quickly elevate its price. Still, even when the PSL is less expensive, the refresher remains an affordable treat.
Illustrating the result, our demand curve for refreshers shifts to the right. Responding, demand for the Pumpkin Spice Latte decreases:
Recalling that social media especially elevated and sustained PSL demand since 2014, now it has expedited its demise.
My sources and more: Thanks to The Washington Post for inspiring our return to the PSL. From there, we checked on some PSL history at Food & Wine, Delish, and People.
